Gyrotron supply shortages impact the scalability of next-gen geothermal drilling
The annual supply of new gyrotrons is insufficient to scale millimeter wave drilling operations for geothermal development, and could potentially impact nuclear fusion as well.
Details
Core information and root causes
Gyrotrons are high-power microwave devices that generate electromagnetic radiation. While historically they’ve primarily been used for heating plasma for nuclear fusion, their ability to produce targeted, extreme heat is also being explored for drilling applications.
The Quaise team shared that access to commercially available gyrotrons is a bottleneck they’re working to address. The lead time for a gyrotron, which is effectively made-to-order, is roughly ~2 years and there are only four primary suppliers that produce them (each producing 1-2 per year).
Efforts
Current initiatives and solutions
Main producers:
- Communications & Power Industries (CPI)
- Thales
- Kyoto Fusioneering (Full gyrotron system)
- Canon Electron Tubes & Devices (Gyrotron tubes)
- GYCOM
Research orgs working on gyrotrons:
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
- MIT Plasma Science and Fusion Center
- National Institutes for Quantum Science and Technology (QST)
- Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics
- University of Tsukuba’s Plasma Research Center
- International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)
Other private sector companies producing gyrotrons:
Approach
Strategic approach and implementation plan
Policy:
- An advanced market commitment for gyrotrons from the DOE would help justify investments for additional manufacturing capacity amongst US manufacturers
- Given the potential to strengthen the supply chain for both nuclear and geothermal, the DOE loan program office might develop a dedicated loan program for gyrotron manufacturers interested in scaling their operation
Private sector:
- Quaise is looking into developing their own gyrotrons in-house
- Several newer companies are developing next-gen gyrotrons, but their production capability is unclear.
Forecast
Future scenarios and predictions
Future Scenarios
Scenario 1
“Demand-Pull Manufacturing” — Policy + Fusion Lift OEM Capacity
What Changes: A DOE Advanced Market Commitment plus an equivalent to LPO-backed capex derisk U.S. manufacturing. Fusion programs and nuclear-powered data-center momentum expand the order book, letting OEMs scale from bespoke to small-batch standardized units. Quaise (and/or newcomers) vertically integrate key subsystems.
Why It Happens:
- AMC + LPO reduce demand and financing risk; OEMs invest in tooling, magnets, and test stands.
- Fusion & nuclear tailwinds (tech majors locking firm clean power; public/private fusion milestones) sustain multi-year demand.
- Broader foresight guidance favors scenario planning, cross-industry partnerships, and weak-signal monitoring, aligning agencies and primes to move early.
What It Means: The bottleneck shifts from “whole-system scarcity” to subcomponent constraints (superconducting magnets, high-voltage modulators, specialized cathodes). Lead times drop from ~24 months to 9–12 months; unit output rises into dozens per year across vendors. Supply chains adopt more adaptive, self-healing practices.
When:
- Early signs: 2026–2028 (DOE RFI/AMC; first LPO-supported lines; OEMs publish standard SKUs and prices)
- Full effect: 2029–2032 (U.S./EU capacity at industrial cadence; standardized 170–250 GHz classes; service & spares pools)
Likelihood: Medium
Requires policy follow-through and multi-year purchase commitments, but momentum in AI-driven firm power procurement and fusion interest provides credible demand pull.
Scenario 2
“Heat Without Gyrotrons” — Alternative Drilling Wins
What Changes: Competing drilling methods (fluid hammer, advanced water/jet erosion, next-gen PDC) achieve cost/ROP parity (or better) at target depths, removing the need to scale mm-wave drilling.
Why It Happens:
- Rapid performance gains in rival technologies through field pilots and vendor financing.
- Operators prefer commodity supply chains over bespoke vacuum-electronics hardware.
- Capital markets discount gyrotron scale-up risk; EPCs standardize around non-RF drilling toolstrings.
What It Means: The gyrotron bottleneck disappears for geothermal; remaining demand is dominated by fusion/labs. Quaise and peers pivot: license mm-wave niches (e.g., casing, re-entry, specialized rock regimes) while core wells use mechanical/jet hybrids.
When:
- Early signs: 2026–2028 (multi-well pilots show repeatable ROP/cost wins; OEMs sign framework agreements with drillers)
- Full effect: 2030–2034 (utilities and developers specify non-RF methods in bankable project templates)
Likelihood: Medium
Multiple rival approaches are advancing; banks and EPCs often prefer lower-novelty components. If two or more methods hit repeatable field economics before gyrotron supply scales, mm-wave demand could fade.
Scenario 3
“Life-Sci Flywheel” (DNP-NMR + Diamond Optics scale the stack)
What Changes: Rapid growth in DNP-NMR and CVD-diamond optics creates a steady, adjacent demand for medium-power gyrotrons, superconducting magnets, and diamond windows. That volume justifies shared modules and test fixtures that also serve geothermal-class builds, cutting cycle times.
Why It Happens:
- DNP-NMR adoption in structural biology & materials pushes unit counts of turn-key gyrotron systems. bridge12.com+2bridge12.com+2
- Diamond-optics suppliers ramp capacity for high-power laser/EUV markets, lowering cost/lead for gyrotron RF windows. Element Six+1
- Magnet OEMs reuse large-bore superconducting designs across scientific and industrial SKUs. KITopen
What It Means: The bottleneck disappears (via spillover scale) for windows and magnets and shrinks for tube assemblies; lead times trend from ~24 months toward ~12–15 as shared parts go catalog.
When:
- Early signs: 2026–2028 (more turn-key DNP systems; new diamond-window product lines)
- Full effect: 2029–2032 (catalog large-bore magnets/windows; mid-power tubes ship from stock)
Likelihood: Medium-High
Multiple adjacent markets are already scaling the exact enabling parts (windows, magnets). If those curves hold, geothermal piggybacks.
Resources
Sources, references, and supporting materials